Thursday, July 10, 2008

The Roaming Starship Above The West

I get off the airplane thinking about the national football league. so many deranged autumns have passed. i'm back in town where they have spotted the nephew of alger hiss roaming the magazine stands.

all throughout the streets, talk of uprisings, wandering through groves, military plots unraveled.

my studio apartment has burnt to the ground -- i'm left huddled in the doorway of a local tavern in the middle of a rainfall; my only possessions are the sunday new york times and the work clothes on me. i gave everything i had to my workplace and it ended up a dream, blown away by lack of financing. i remember mr. bings ale house, just off kerouac street, in north beach -- the buffalo bills on the 12" television in the corner -- the bartender goes grim as the bills front seven tires, giving up large chunks of real estate (8 yards, 17 yards, 9 yards, 31 yards) -- his football pool dissembling -- he pours our beers methodically, in stunned silence, at 10:12 a.m. PST. the bills down by 20 with 8:43 to go on the 4th. islamabad on fire. sadr city ripped to shreds. the waves of the sea are loose and wild tonight. all the grey world has set it claws on the glorious one.

I won $41 on a horse race in a wretched OTB establishment in cheyenne, wyoming in 1997 -- old men, wandering, drunken, lost, visions of past world wars, adrift in visions of hackensack 1906. pre-robots. pre-escalator. pre-spiral notebooks, pre-heavenly cloud over trumbull, ct.

for chausen, i translated the diaries of royal princess sevaan star, as transcribed by her faithful guardian jean-korrel viktoras.

like me, you have walked from the darkened outskirts of ridgefield, down 33, past the silent fountain, into the pale glow of town below lamplights at 3:15 a.m. (late-june 1989).

Po Chu-i, you are a math tutor who dreams ALWAYS of the west, and the endless water.

oOOstarshipOOo

Friday, July 4, 2008

The Youthhostel Basel



















This is the youth hostel at St. Alban-Kirchrain 10 in Basel, Switzerland. Here's what we found:

It is glorious to stay here in this quiet, green, sleepy oasis of Basel, not far from the Rhine. Enjoy marvelous food in the vaulted dining hall and, nevertheless, be only a 10 minutes walk away from the effervescence of Basel's city life. The optimal starting point from which you can set out to discover Basel and its unique way of life. Accommodation: 194 beds. Washrooms and showers on every floor.

Thursday, May 15, 2008

Returning Home (Part 3): The Scholar's Take

Wayne White, adjunct scholar with the Middle East Institute
By Laura Rozen

October 18, 2007

http://www.motherjones.com/interview/2007/11/iraq-war-wayne-white.html

Mother Jones: When we leave Iraq, what equipment do we leave behind?

Wayne White: You have to keep something in mind, and that is if there has been an escalation in the sheer monetary value of certain military items, that reduces flexibility in leaving things behind. In other words, in World War II, a $250,000 Sherman Tank could easily be left behind as with a lot of vehicles that could be towed out on a barge off France and dumped into the deep blue sea rather than shipping them home, because it wasn't very expensive. Whereas an M1 Abrams, to leave something like that behind, you are talking about a piece of equipment that has a far, far higher replacement cost to the U.S. military. They will not be left. So some of the pieces of equipment that would have been considered expendable in the old days are not now.

Also, we have to presume in drawing up these scenarios and assessments that we won't have a coherent military or government to turn things over to. In other words, a lot of M48 tanks were turned over to the Army of the Republic of Vietnam. That's probably not going to be an option in this day, because probably they would just become equipment for use by one side in the civil war.

MJ: The theory that we have created and trained security forces strong enough to leave it to seems like a fiction.

WW: I think I am most worried about Muqtada al-Sadr. He does get Iranian support. It could extend to groups beyond him, but he is clearly the one with the most serial and anti-occupation sentiment, and somebody who probably couldn't resist either taking his last lick at us as we withdraw, or keeping control of elements that are part of his organization who want to do that.

There are a lot of scores that people might want to settle.

MJ: What do you think of the argument that we should leave residual forces in the country for a number of years to keep it glued together?

WW: I regard that as...I think it's moot. There won't be domestic support for [doing that]. And Iraq won't look better in order to make people think this is a good thing. The casualties will continue to trickle in.

We have to keep in mind, like that general who was quoted [recently] in the New York Times, who asked 40-odd soldiers, "How many of you trust our new best friends?" And not a hand went up. He said, "Good, I want it to stay that way." Essentially, the thing is watch your back, because these people who are cooperating with us now are the most virulently anti-occupation of any constituency in the country, and they regard the government in Baghdad as a Shiite-Kurdish government that will not only deny them a fair share of what happens with the budgetary pot and energy pot in the country, but will most likely use the new Iraqi Army to actually wreak vengeance on these people.

Iraq is a very, very tough place. People don't get mad; they get even. The Sunni Arabs know that they have done plenty to get people mad.

MJ: Would you move our troops out, or would you move them to bases, sort of behind big walls?

WW: No, bases are a very bad idea. Bases really aren't a way to withdraw. Bases are a way to first of all create immense resentment in a country in which the issue of British faith became so significant under the monarchy that it was one of the reasons the monarchy fell. As we know from the Vietnam experience, retention or establishment of bases is the same. It's the way to get into a war, not out. If you keep something like that, you are going to have to defend it, and that means you are going to have to retain a large force, and that large force has to be deployed, and that large force has to have air cover.

MJ: Can we trust the Sunnis to be our sort of proxy in fighting Al Qaeda?

WW: You can't completely trust them, because in some cases you are going to have the efforts disrupted by tribal and familial issues.

MJ: After the elections in '08, do you see the new president bringing the troops home as fast as possible?

WW: No, I see a very gradual withdrawal. It's an agonizing process, withdrawing and drawing down. I don't know whether you can go fast.

MJ: Could troops be replaced by private contractors, just so we could say, "Hey, we don't have so many troops in the country anymore"?

WW: Well, they have their own problems though. They don't want to be at the forefront of the military action out there. They have their large elements that are performing essentially security duties, but those guys didn't sign up for infantry duty. They signed up to be prepared to defend against occasional violence.

MJ: How much do these companies start basically localizing their employee base? I mean, do they start hiring Iraqis to do what they had people from Texas doing before?

WW: They do have people who are Iraqis already working for them, but I would think if we are drawing down, the contractors are going to be drawing down also. They aren't going to be hiring more people. They will be hiring less.

MJ: Is there any hope of getting the international community involved at this point in Iraq, the U.N. or NATO?

WW: No. They know it's a very dangerous place, and they don't want to lose people. The international community wants to stay as far away from this as possible. Humanitarian organizations want to help very badly, but they know that their people cannot operate in a hostile environment. In other words, if you take care of Sunni Arab refugees, let's hope you don't run into any Shiites.

MJ: If there is a partition of Iraq, where the U.S. reduces its presence there, who does make humanitarian efforts there?

WW: I think until the worst settles down, you can only do it on [the borders]. A lot of the refugees are already on the borders.

MJ: Do we take the Iraqis who have worked with the Americans with us?

WW: Yes. This would be a vital aspect of a withdrawal. In other words, if you are banning these people, a lot of them are going to die, their families will die. This will be flashed all over the media throughout the world as a horrific thing that the United States allowed to happen. In addition, some of them, if they are turned away embittered, will join the people attacking us, because they know a lot about our facilities and installations, and could actually be a tremendous help to anyone wanting to harass us during the withdrawal.

So in order to have their help and have their loyalty, and to avoid a bloodbath in certain dangerous areas, they must come out with us along with their immediate families. If that means 350,000 people, that's what it means.

Returning Home (Part 2): The Pentagon's Take

Colonel Gary Anderson (USMC, retired), Pentagon consultant
By Bruce Falconer

October 18, 2007

http://www.motherjones.com/interview/2007/11/iraq-war-gary-anderson.html

Mother Jones: What do we need to do and when would we need to do it to get out of Iraq by a certain date?

Gary Anderson: Well, the first thing is that that date hasn't been set yet. If the Pentagon had its way, it would be a very staged, orderly thing. They do logistics very well. Now if for some reason the Iraqis or Congress said, "You have to get out right away," logistics would be the least of our concerns.

MJ: What needs to be done to move, say, one brigade out of Iraq?

GA: The last experience we had that was a major withdrawal from the theater was after the Gulf War. We got a lot of stuff out of there very, very quickly. Your major concerns are, first of all, what equipment are you going to leave behind? Are you going to leave some behind for the Iraqi Armed Forces? And then you've got some training issues, you've got some logistics issues and how they're going to take care of it. Is some of the gear even worth taking? Is it something you might want to junk and sell for scrap? A lot of the stuff is worn out and might not even be worth taking home. I think in most cases, we will take it and try to refurbish it. So first decision is what we actually leave and what stays behind as residual for the Iraqis. And then the second question is how you secure getting it out of the country, assuming there's still a significant military. You're going to want to organize convoys that are protected, and that's really a no-brainer. Our logisticians do that all the time. When you start thinking about bringing it back to the States, there are some actual agricultural and just general U.S. regulations that the Department of Defense has to conform to, like washing down the vehicles, making sure that they don't have any hazardous material aboard them, making sure of all the ammunition is properly taken away from the vehicles for storage because neither the Navy nor commercial people like live ammunition aboard ships or places that aren't supposed to have live ammunition. There are a lot of very detailed things that have to be done to each vehicle before it's certified as ready to get back aboard a ship or an airplane or whatever the case may be.

MJ: Do you have any idea how much time that actually takes per vehicle?

GA: It depends on how fast you want to move. We wrapped up the war in March, and I think the vast majority of our gear in 2001 was gone by mid-July. That includes the mountains of ammunition and supplies that we had dumped down the thing thinking we were going to have a bigger war than we had.

MJ: What kind of a presence do you imagine we would maintain after the primary drawdown?

GA: It's going to be a case-by-case, division-by-division basis as the Army decides it doesn't have to be there anymore. You'll probably see a two-step approach. It'll probably start where they stop operating jointly with the Iraqis, and then go out to a remote base where they can still get in quickly if they get in trouble. Take a look at how they do when they first get into an independent mode, and at some point in time, once they're competent enough that they can control that area, then the American unit disengages and goes home.

MJ: I saw you on CNN saying that your primary concern in the post-American Iraq is not Sunni versus Shiite, but the Shiite factions battling one another.

GA: When I was a U.N. peacekeeper in Lebanon, when they weren't actually shooting at the Israelis the various Shiite factions were fighting amongst each other and then fighting with the Palestinian camps on the border. And that's unfortunately in their nature. If they don't have anybody else to argue with, they argue with each other, which is part of the problem, other than that they've never been able to really get their act together running any given country. And that's going to cause some problems. You can see that happening already in Iraq on a small scale, but I think absent us, it's going to become more of a problem.

MJ: How much of a problem? Is this an apocalyptic scenario?

GA: From a Shiite on Shiite standpoint, I don't think you're going to see genocide or a mass bloodletting and major street battles involving thousands of people. I think it'll look very much like the Lebanese civil war, where not only did you have various ethnic and religious groups fighting with each other, but you had struggles within those groups for control. You've got all those dynamic tensions in the Shiite community that are playing up against each other that, absent us as being the main irritant, you're going to see play out. So I think there will be some definite ethnic cleansing of the Sunnis, but the Sunnis just don't have the mass to really put up much of a stand-up fight. I think you're going to see them pushed into Al Anbar, and I don't think there's going to be an attempt to follow them and create genocide. I think they're just going to leave them out there and let them fend for themselves because there's nothing out there that the Shiites or the Kurds want.

MJ: What about Al Qaeda? Do they pretty much leave the country when the Americans are gone?

GA: Oh, no. No, no. I think Al Qaeda's game is to, having lost Afghanistan, turn Al Anbar Province into the new Afghanistan, and that's a major issue. Now, what I think will happen is there are three neighbors out there that are very, very concerned with Al Qaeda, probably more concerned—or should be more concerned—than we are because they're a lot closer to home and that's Syria, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan. So I think what you're going to see in Al Anbar is these tribal sheikhs that have aligned themselves up with us lately, the Saudis and the other nations will approach them and there'll be an attempt to fund them to continue the attempt to get rid of the foreign fighters, and given the fact that the Americans will be gone, they only got one group of foreigners to really think about. What's very, very likely to happen is that they'll be feeding competing Saudi, Jordanian, and Syrian finance factions that'll probably start bickering amongst each other and then you've got sort of a three-way within a Sunni community.

It would be to their advantage to the three Sunni countries to seriously consider pulling their resources and try to turn Al Anbar both economically and security-wise into something that they could live with, but just given the nature of the way these guys operate, I'm not saying whether that'll happen.


MJ: You're picturing these breaks within both the Shiites and Sunnis. What about the Kurds in Turkey?

GA: That's a whole issue unto itself. I don't see the Kurds declaring independence. It'll be suicidal. But the Turks would put an end to it. And they've got the military power to overrun the place, but it would be a massive…they would end up bogged down in a guerrilla war, but it would be disastrous for the Kurds—all that prosperity they've built up in the last four years would be gone, and it would be a mess.

The other potential lightning rod there is the Turkoman down in Kirkuk. The Turks consider them to be clients and little brothers and so forth, and if something really bad happens ethnic-cleansing-wise, that might also cause the Turks to get involved. So no matter which way you turn going out of Baghdad, you can see potential trouble on the horizon. Minus some kind of moderating influence on our part.


MJ: What does Iraq look like in 10 to 15 years?

GA: I would say there will still be something called Iraq. What governing mechanism it has, I don't know. Frankly, I think Kurdistan will be part of it, at least de facto—you know, by lip service—simply because it would serve their purposes, not because they love the Arabs. And the question is whether or not some kind of compromise between the Sunnis and the Shiites could occur. It doesn't look real good right now.

There's always a possibility that when we leave the Army may step in and establish a strong, centralized dictatorship unprecedented in that part of the world. And that assumes that the Army gets to a point where it's actually strong enough to do that. There's a whole bunch of scenarios you can play with, but I don't see these three separate Iraqi nations that some people have talked about. There is a real strong feeling of nationalism among the Iraqi Arabs. The Kurds have their own reasons for trying to stay part of that, but how powerful that central government is is really a major question in my mind right now.


MJ: Another consideration of leaving is what to do with the Iraqis who have collaborated with the United States.

GA: Well, in best-of-all-possible worlds, the Army is strong enough to take care of itself and do what Iraqi governing elites have always done, which is live in walled compounds and protect themselves from the on-watch masses and so forth. Worst-of-all-possible worlds, then we really have to seriously consider making arrangements for those people who have worked for us and so forth like we did with many of the Vietnamese.

I can't really tell you how a new Congress/the '08 election is going to react to the whole situation. I'm a lot more confident in telling you what I think the various Iraqi factions and local regional neighbors will do than I am about what the United States is going to do.

MJ: It's been reported that to maintain the surge level, tours would have to be extended beyond the 15-month period to as long as 18 months.

GA: I frankly think we're going to see a drawdown. There's going to be some kind of decision made if it appears that the Iraqis are just incapable; the reality of the surge was to try to buy them time. They appear to have herded away a lot of that, and I think if it comes to a point where it looks like good money going after bad, we will probably come up with some other plans. The Army cannot sustain this level of commitment. So I think one way or the other, you're going to see a drawdown. I do not imagine the surge there lasting too much. I honestly don't foresee a major flight from Iraq between now and next November. But the Army cannot sustain this level of commitment without really straining it to the breaking point.

MJ: You mentioned the Lebanese civil war as a good example from history of what we might expect. Are there any other historical examples we can turn to?

GA: Well, I think that calling it "civil war" is dignifying what would probably happen. It's going to be a messy, confusing series of grabs for power and a series of bumps and grinds and so forth, much like the Lebanese civil war was. But this kind of apocalyptic struggle between the Shiites and Sunnis—I frankly don't see that happening.

MJ: What about the actual withdrawal of troops? Some people have said that as the Americans leave Iraq, they'll be taking fire. Will our withdrawal be like the Soviets leaving Afghanistan?

GA: No. Basically, it depends on how the opposition plays it. Some will probably be glad to see us go. Quite frankly, I think the people in Iraq who are going to be most sorry to see us go are Al Qaeda. We're the only rationale for them being around. Absent us, they become foreigners.

I think we're capable of making a much more orderly exit than that just based on what I know of our capabilities and so forth. It certainly wouldn't look like Dunkirk. The Russians—and quite frankly, the Israelis, when they left Lebanon—did not think this through particularly well, and I think their army's heart wasn't in it and they didn't want to do it, so they didn't plan for it. But I give our planners a little bit more credit for being able to get a handle on that sort of thing.

I'm not saying there won't be casualties. I'm just saying some group of bad guys might not really go after us. I'm just saying we don't want to give them credit for being that much better than they are.

Returning Home (Part 1): The Activist's Take

Interview With Medea Benjamin of Code Pink
By Josh Harkinson

October 18, 2007


http://www.motherjones.com/interview/2007/11/iraq-war-medea-benjamin.html

Mother Jones: How soon should the U.S. leave Iraq?

Medea Benjamin: I would say, just to pick a time, by the end of the year [2007]. We have been saying troops home by the holidays, but we’ve been saying that for the last four years. And then in terms of when we would leave, that’s a very different story. I think if we left a year from now, that would be not my ideal, but it would certainly be positive. I doubt even that is going to happen.

MJ: When you say, “by the end of the year,” do you mean you want to pull out every last U.S. soldier by then?

MB: Well, I think it’s kind of silly to talk about it because it’s just not going to happen. I think it makes more sense to talk about what is in the realm of even the possible. If we said we would like the troops to withdraw by the end of 2008, let’s say, I would think that is totally doable physically. Certainly you will hear different generals tell you different things. I had McCaffrey tell me that you could do it in six months; some say it would take two years. So I would think if we began the withdrawal, like Senator John Warner is saying, by the holidays and had all U.S. troops out by the end of the year, that would give over a year to try to put into place the mechanism for trying to move for a real reconciliation plan and if necessary have some international peacekeeping troops come in.

MJ: After most troops pull out, should the United States leave any bases behind?

MB: No, I don’t think there should be U.S. bases; I think having U.S. bases in the Middle East was part of the reason we were attacked on September 11th and will keep us vulnerable and less secure. I think with the modern military the way it is, you don’t need to be based on somebody’s soil.

MJ: Should we station troops at the border?

MB: I don’t think there should be U.S. troops anywhere. I think the U.S. should help pay other countries, if they are willing to contribute troops, and it’s needed. I would say no country that has been part of the “Coalition of the Willing” would be considered legitimate in Iraq right now, but there are plenty of other countries that didn’t participate and that, if paid by the U.S., might be willing to contribute troops. They could be countries like Indonesia, Nigeria. It could be forces from countries from the Muslim community that are not the neighboring countries.

MJ: Under what conditions would you redeploy American troops to Iraq?

MB: I think that the U.S. is part of the problem, not part of the solution. And there definitely needs to be a plan in place, but the U.S. troops should not be a part of that plan. If the violence escalates and the troops went back in, it would just get worse.

MJ: What will prevent Iraq’s civil war from flaring into genocidal violence?

MB: We have to get the international community—the U.N., the Arab League—involved. The transition plans should set up different scenarios that could include an increase in violence and how the international community, not the U.S., should respond to that.

MJ: What will make the world stop genocide in Iraq when it didn’t in Rwanda or Darfur?

MB: The Europeans, the Japanese, and the Chinese are all concerned about the flow of oil. The First World will be affected by this, as they weren’t in Rwanda. Come on, there is a hell of a lot of difference, unfortunately, between the international community’s concern about a small, resource-poor nation like Rwanda and a region like the Middle East.

MJ: Should having an international force at the ready be a precondition for a U.S. withdrawal?

MB: Yeah, especially as a contingency plan. We’re spending $3 billion dollars a week on the war, and we could certainly be spending the money better in helping to pay for an international peacekeeping force to be in the ready.

MJ: Is assembling such a force even being seriously discussed right now?

MB: There has been more of a hopelessness this year [2007] with the increase in violence and the sense the U.S. wasn’t going to leave, so why even bother planning such scenarios? So I think it will really only happen seriously once there is a timetable for withdrawal. The more we put off the timeline, the less likely it is that any of those plans are even talked about in a serious fashion.

MJ: Is there any contradiction between supporting U.S. military intervention to stop the Rwandan genocide and opposing U.S. military intervention to prevent ethnic cleansing in Iraq?

MB: It’s a totally different situation. We are looking at a case now where our presence is a major part of the problem. The United States cannot, in my opinion, be construed at all as part of the solution, and we have got to recognize that we have zero possibility of stopping the violence and helping Iraq become a functioning stable country. And that it’s only by leaving that the possibility of that will exist. But yes, we do have to have contingency plans, because there is a possibility that the violence could get worse.

Iraq in the Rearview Mirror

From Mother Jones:

http://truher.mojones.com/news/feature/2007/11/iraq-war-introduction.html

U.S. Out Now! How?: Introduction

It started as Bush's war, but we all own it now—and it's time we took a hard look at what that means.

By The Editors

October 18, 2007

"You break it, you own it." So goes the "Pottery Barn rule" that Colin Powell invoked in his last-ditch attempts to dissuade President Bush from invading Iraq. "You are going to be the proud owner of 25 million people. You will own all their hopes, aspirations, and problems. You'll own it all."

In the end, of course, Powell caved to Bush's geopolitical whims, played the good soldier, and did as much as anyone to lie to the world and sell the case for invasion—an invasion driven by blind ideology, wishful thinking, and a feckless refusal to consider the consequences. Stupefyingly, the administration maintains that attitude to this day—refusing, for example, to address the plight of 2 million refugees because, you see, they'll all go home soon to a pacified Iraq.

Yet it's not just the administration that has its head in the sand; to varying degrees, we all do. For those of us who argued against invading, it is tempting to simply demand an end to "Bush's War" and wash our hands of it. But as General Anthony Zinni, former head of U.S. forces in the Middle East, told us, "Your conscience is not clean just because you're a peace demonstrator." In other words, just because you weren't in favor of going in doesn't mean you're not responsible for what happens when we pull out.

And pull out we will—if only because the military can't sustain current troop levels. Not that you'd know it from listening to the debate in Washington, with its farcical focus on timetables and surges and benchmarks. Take the grand unveiling of the Petraeus report, a PR blitz reminiscent of prewar opinion orchestration. First, Brookings Institution scholars Kenneth Pollack and Michael O'Hanlon went on a Potemkin tour of Iraq and dutifully wrote an op-ed called "A War We Just Might Win." Only two qualifiers? No matter, the Washington commentariat took the cue and hastily fell in line. As did the media, some of which even bought Dick Cheney's canard that these two were "critics of the war." (Actually, as Salon's Glenn Greenwald forced O'Hanlon to acknowledge, "I was a supporter.") By the time General David Petraeus presented himself to Congress—his "report" long since leaked—the political theater had devolved into bad summer stock. General Petraeus was the very model of a modern major general; the Democratic candidates formed a spectral chorus; MoveOn played to type as the shrill left. And, most gratingly, Bush reprised his 2003 role: flinty-eyed, elbows on podium, warning of Al Qaeda evildoers on the one hand and genocide on the other.

Now, as then, this was a nice bit of political calculation designed to reconstitute the pro-invasion coalition of the worried, the gung-ho, and the humanitarian interventionists. True, Bush wasn't completely lying. Al Qaeda in Iraq is a threat—one entirely of Bush's making, but a threat nonetheless. (See: Al Qaeda in Iraq: How Dangerous Is It?) And there's the very real chance that withdrawal will precipitate more, perhaps even apocalyptic, violence. (See: Four Post-Occupation Scenarios)

There are no good options in Iraq, but the options narrow to the horrific the longer our leaders dawdle. Bush seems content—whether out of delusional optimism or cynical "strategery"—to run out the clock and stick the next administration with this mess; only 5 percent of Americans expect him to do otherwise. And the Democrats are playing the other side of the same game—content to let the GOP go down with its man.

So what is to be done? First and foremost, anyone running for or holding national office must be forced to answer these questions: What's your schedule for withdrawal, and what consequences do you foresee? Which comes first—withdrawal, a functioning Iraqi government, or a solid international peacekeeping force? What concessions would you make to get Iraq's neighbors to help? What degree of bloodshed are you prepared to stand by and watch?

We put such questions to five dozen military men, think-tankers, peace activists, academics, and politicians. Some of their responses follow, and we'll post the full interviews online, along with a list of those who refused to respond—including the architects of the war, leading presidential candidates, and the congressional leadership. Some, it should be noted, begged off because they were taking a summer break, even as Iraqi politicians were being criticized for doing the same. We hope that if we can't force them to reckon with reality, you can. As General Zinni notes, "the government is us. We made promises and commitments. The administration proposed the war; Congress—the voice of the people—authorized it; we are responsible for it. We can't claim, 'I didn't vote for him in the first place' or 'I changed my mind.' There has to be some sort of obligation that falls to us as a society for what our government does in our name."

Yes, Bush, a leader with all the impulse control of a petulant three-year-old, "broke" Iraq. But we own it now. Time to get ready with the apology, the checkbook, and whatever else is required.

Wednesday, May 14, 2008

( ( ( Connecting the Dots ) ) )

In continuing to look at the opium trade, we again visit the work of Pierre-arnaud Chouvy, who published a report titled “Drugs and the Financing of Terrorism,” which helps to answer the following questions about the links that exist between opium and terrorism.

Pierre-arnaud is a research fellow at CNRS in France. He hosts the site
www.geopium.org, which focuses on geopolitics of illicit drugs with a focus on Asia.

Q: From a bird's-eye view, how is the opium trade in Afghanistan linked with terrorism?

The financing of terrorism through illicit drug trafficking has been touted as a major problem since the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001. Indeed, during the last decade, Afghanistan has been the most important opium-producing country in the world. It was under Taliban rule in 1999 that opium production reached its height with a 4,581-ton yield. Moreover, the fact that al-Qaeda and Osama bin Laden found a safe haven in that country raised concerns about the possible emergence of a more global and pernicious alliance between drug traffickers and terrorists.

But three years after the ouster of the Taliban, Afghanistan's opium production is expected to exceed even 1999's record high, thus raising concerns that the country is on the verge of becoming a "narco-state" and a bastion of "narco-terrorism." Antonio Maria Costa, the Executive Director of the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, warned of "mounting evidence of drug money being used to finance criminal activities, including terrorism," and declared that "fighting drug trafficking equals fighting terrorism."

A few cases have been highlighted by the media as evidence of al-Qaeda tapping into the opium economy of Afghanistan, even though the claims in themselves do not constitute an argument for the existence of any organized form of "narco-terrorism."

Q: What does the term “narco-terrorism” mean?

Terrorist outfits are not less likely than others to at least try to benefit from such a resource, especially in a country like Afghanistan where the opium economy is estimated to equal half of the country's legitimate gross domestic product. However, for the term not to become hackneyed, it seems that "narco-terrorism" should not refer to terrorist groups that have been only partly funded by illegal drugs, but rather to identify organized narcotics traffickers who seek to affect the policies of a government by terrorist means.

Moreover, when one considers the direct and/or indirect involvement of the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency and the Pakistani Inter-Services Intelligence in the drug trade, it further complicates the adequacy of a category such as "narco-terrorism" and would require comparing how different actors like resistance guerrillas, intelligence and counter-insurgency agencies, and terrorist organizations use the drug economy.


Q: Does al-Queda benefit from drug trafficking?

According to Western intelligence agencies, "recent busts have revealed evidence of al-Qaeda's ties to the trade." Such ties were inferred by various seizures of narcotics such as the one made by the U.S. Navy in the Arabian Sea on a small fishing boat aboard which "several al-Qaeda guys sitting on a bale of drugs" were found. In another case, the Kabul house of a drug trafficker was raided and a dozen satellite phones, used to call numbers "linked to suspected terrorists" in Turkey, the Balkans and Western Europe, were found. Hitherto, arguably the most serious case involving a connection between drug traffickers and "terrorists" is that revolving around the network of Haji Juma Khan, an Afghan national. According to some reports, western intelligence agencies are said to believe that Khan is the head of a heroin-trafficking organization that is a "principal source of funding for the Taliban and al-Qaida terrorists." Khan's boats would allegedly ship Afghan heroin out of the Pakistani port of Karachi and would return from the Middle East loaded with arms for both al-Qaeda and the Taliban.

Mirwais Yasini, the head of Afghanistan's Counter Narcotics Directorate, who estimates that the Taliban and its allies derived more than $150 million from drugs in 2003, also alleges that there are "central linkages" between Khan, Mullah Omar and Osama bin Laden.

The independent commission investigating the September 11th attacks recently declared that "the US government still has not determined with any precision how much al Qaeda raises or from whom, or how it spends its money." According to this report, al-Qaeda is mainly funded by rich individuals from the Persian Gulf and by some Islamic charities. Of greater interest, still, is the commission's assertion that there is "no substantial evidence that al Qaeda played a major role in the drug trade or relied on it as an important source of revenue either before or after 9/11."

Q: If it is true—if opium and illicit drug money serves al-Queda and the Taliban, do they benefit equally? Are they both equally involved?

If al-Qaeda is connected to the opium economy of Afghanistan, it would not be at the production level but higher up in the chain of drug processing and trafficking, most likely involving the protection of heroin laboratories and trafficking caravans. As for where the money generated from drug production and trafficking goes, it has always been divided iniquitously, in Afghanistan and elsewhere, among farmers who receive the smallest share; producers/warlords who condone or encourage production in their territory, and local and regional traffickers who get the biggest share.

Al-Qaeda is likely to have become involved in the drug trade after the ouster of the Taliban, who were after all levying taxes on the opium trade. It is also important to stress that it was the Taliban who benefited from al-Qaeda's funding and not the other way round. Indeed, as stated by the 9/11 commission, "prior to 9/11 the largest single al Qaeda expense was support for the Taliban, estimated at about $20 million per year."

Moreover, knowledgeable observers agree that the drug trade was at that time the Taliban's second source of revenue, estimated at $80 or $100 million in 1999. This reliable estimate casts serious doubt on allegations that the Taliban earned more from drugs in 2003 than in 1999 when opium production was higher and when they controlled 85% of Afghanistan. Besides, the 9/11 commission declared that "intelligence collection efforts have failed to corroborate rumours of current narcotic trafficking. In fact, there is compelling evidence the al Qaeda leadership does not like or trust those who today control the drug trade in Southwest Asia, and has encouraged its members not to get involved."Q: In linking drug trafficking to terrorism, is the connection really there—or is it fueled by political agenda?

The argument that the threat of narco-terrorism—whatever its definition—in Afghanistan and elsewhere is hyped by political and sectional interests rather than originating from hard intelligence is clearly not without foundation. Moreover, while there is little doubt that some proceeds of the illicit drug trade contribute partially to the funding of some terrorist outfits, drug trafficking is still far from being the main financing source of global terrorism. Indeed, it is clear that terrorists and drug traffickers have differing long-term goals, which should be considered in the methods used to counter both. Thus, fighting drug trafficking does not necessarily equate to fighting terrorism, even though "narco-terrorism," depicted as a threat by certain sectional interests, arguably legitimates and reinforces a failed global war on drugs.

Tuesday, April 22, 2008

( (( ((( H & O on Iran ))) )) )

Sourced from ABC News: http://www.abcnews.go.com/GMA/Vote2008/story?id=4700982&page=1

By JAKE TAPPER, CHRIS CUOMO, ELOISE HARPER, COLE KAZDIN, JAY SHAYLOR AND EMILY FRIEDMAN

Obama and Hillary Visit A Pro Wrestling Card; Then Discuss Iran

Yesterday:

Democratic presidential rivals topped off six weeks of often bitter battles by appearing on WWE's pro wrestling show "Raw" on the eve of the Pennsylvania primary.

"You can call me Hillrod," said Clinton of her WWE persona, and Obama asked the audience, "Do you smell what Barack is cooking?"

Today:

In an interview with ABC's Chris Cuomo, Clinton expressed her toughest stance yet on Iran's nuclear ambitions and the potential threat the country poses to American allies.

"If Iran were to launch a nuclear attack on Israel what would our response be?" Clinton said. "I want the Iranians to know that if I'm the president, we will attack Iran. That's what we will do. There is no safe haven."

"Whatever stage of development they might be in their nuclear weapons program in the next 10 years during which they may foolishly consider launching an attack on Israel, we would be able to totally obliterate them," Clinton said.


Clinton's tough talk on Iran came a day after she launched a TV ad in Pennsylvania that included the ominous face of al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden. Clinton introduced bin Laden into the campaign along with the narrator's voice warning, "It's the toughest job in the world. You need to be ready for anything."

When asked how he would respond to a nuclear attack by Iran, Obama told ABC News' Robin Roberts that he would do everything he could to prevent the country from having weapons in the first place.

"I was absolutely clear about the fact that if Iran used nuclear weapons on Israel, or any of our allies, we would respond forcefully and swiftly," said Obama. "But, in some ways, this hypothetical presupposes a failure to begin with. We shouldn't allow Iran to have nuclear weapons, period. I have consistently said that I will do everything in my power to prevent them from having it and I have not ruled out military force as an option."

Obama suggested that Clinton's use of terms such as "obliterate" in reference to Iran are ineffective "saber rattling."

"Talk using words like obliterate doesn't actually produce good results," said Obama. "I think the Iranians can be confident that I will respond forcefully, and it will be completely unacceptable if they attacked Israel, or any other of our allies in the region, with conventional weapons or nuclear weapons."

Obama Machine vs. Hillary Machine

With Pennsylvania on the line, here's a look at the confrontational memos being issued today by the teams behind Obama and Hillary:

From NBC's Mark Murray

Source: http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/04/22/932542.aspx

The Obama and Clinton campaigns have released dueling memos to frame today's Pennsylvania primary. The Cliffs Notes version: The Obama folks continue to argue that Clinton was always favored in the state, but that the delegate math is stacked against her. Meanwhile, Team Clinton wonders -- if Obama is the front-runner -- why he shouldn't be expected to win in the Keystone State.

The Obama camp's memo: "Clinton has been leading by large margins in Pennsylvania. In the weeks leading up to the primary, she led by as much as 25 points. They were so confident that their own Pennsylvania spokesman said Clinton would be 'unbeatable' in Pennsylvania—regardless of spending by her opponent... Behind in delegates and sporting a 14-30 primary record (not good enough even to make the playoffs in the NBA Eastern Conference), the Clinton campaign needs a blowout victory in Pennsylvania to get any closer to winning the nomination. Even President Clinton said that only a 'big, big victory' will give her the boost she needs.

More: "Tonight’s outcome is unlikely to change the dynamic of this lengthy primary. Fully three quarters of the remaining delegates will be selected in states other than Pennsylvania. While there are 158 delegates at stake in today’s primary, there are 157 up for grabs in the Indiana and North Carolina primaries two weeks from today. We expect that by tomorrow morning, the overall structure of the race will remain unchanged—except for the fact that there will be 158 delegates off the table."

The Clinton memo: "[A]fter the Obama campaign’s 'go-for-broke' Pennsylvania strategy, after their avalanche of negative ads, negative mailers and negative attacks against Sen. Clinton, after their record-breaking spending in the state, a fundamental question must be asked: Why shouldn't Sen. Obama win? Sen. Obama's supporters -- and many pundits -- have argued that the delegate 'math' makes him the prohibitive front-runner. They have argued that Sen. Clinton's chances are slim to none. So if he's already the front-runner, if he's had six weeks of unlimited resources to get his message out, shouldn't he be the one expected to win tonight? If not, why not? As the phrase goes, watch what they do not what they say."

"There's a reason Sen. Obama and his campaign have ratcheted up their year-long assault on Sen. Clinton's character and ended the Pennsylvania campaign with a flurry of harsh negative attacks. It's because they know that a loss in Pennsylvania will raise troubling questions about his candidacy and his ability to take on John McCain in the general election. And it's because they know that the race is neck and neck and tonight's contest is a measure of where the campaign stands."

( ( (( A brief history of opium )) ) )

From the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program's THE CHINA AND EURASIA FORUM QUARTERLY, Volume 4, No. 1

www.silkroadstudies.org/new/docs/CEF/Quarterly/February_2006/Pierre-Arnaud_Chouvy.pdf -

Afghanistan’s Opium Production in Perspective
By: Pierre-Arnaud Chouvy


Note: Pierre-Arnaud Chouvy is a geographer and Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) research fellow in Paris, France. He produces www.geopium.org.

Afghanistan has been the world’s primary opium producing country since 1991, when it surpassed Burma (Myanmar) in total annual production. Both the Taliban regime and the Karzai government inherited an illicit drug economy that has been stimulated by two decades of war and also fuelled the country’s war economy. However, just as the Taliban government successfully, but counterproductively, prohibited opium production in 2001, their regime was toppled by U.S. military intervention in response to the September 11 attacks in the United States.

Then, in a rather chaotic Afghanistan, opium production resumed and grew back to normal. Now, the illicit drug economy in Afghanistan is said to fuel terrorism. The Afghan government, the U.S.-led coalition and the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime consider that "fighting drug trafficking equals fighting terrorism." However, in Afghanistan as in other parts of the world, in Burma for example, opium has long been at stake in armed conflicts as its trade has allowed these conflicts to be prolonged. As the complex history of opium in Asia demonstrates, opium production and trade have been central to world politics and geopolitics for centuries and the role of the opium economy in Afghanistan does not represent a new trend. In many ways, history reinvents itself.

A Brief History of Opium

Opium is one of the world’s oldest pain-relievers. It is a narcotic drug that is obtained from the unripe seedpods of the opium poppy, Papaver somniferum L. It is difficult to pinpoint the geographic area of origin of the opium poppy. Although the oldest opium poppy capsules have been found in Switzerland, the plant itself is thought to have originated somewhere between the eastern Mediterranean and Minor Asia. However, the opium poppy has proven its ability to adapt to most ecological environments and, thus, has spread across Europe and Asia, and, even to the Americas, Australia and Africa. Very early on then, the opium poppy grew around human settlements and has most likely thrived in a symbiosis with early human activities along transcontinental migration routes. Indeed, historically, human societies have widely used opium as an analgesic and a sedative. Its cultivation was also a way to finance empires, colonial ventures, and wars. It was not until the British Empire started organizing and commercializing opium production in the 19th century that the opium poppy became entrenched in the world economy. The opium produced in British India was the first drug to become integrated into the then emerging globalization. Tea, which was then only grown in China, was bought by British merchants with silver extracted from South American mines. This triangular trade went on at least until the British Empire, together with the East India Company it had set up, created a thriving opium market in China, first through illegal smuggling and then through forced imports. The two so-called “opium wars” (1839-1842 and 1856-1860) waged by the British to impose their opium trade onto China resulted in “unfair treaties” that not only made Hong Kong a British colony but also provoked, in China, the biggest addiction ever to happen in world history. Eventually, opium consumption and addiction also spurred tremendous opium production in China. In response to the Chinese national consumption that drained its silver reserves, China became the world’s foremost opium producer.

China did not succeed in suppressing both national opium consumption and production until after World War II. Opium production then moved to the hills and mountains of Southeast Asia, where the so-called Golden Triangle quickly became the primary opium producing region in the world. As Alfred McCoy revealed in his 1972 seminal book The Politics of Heroin in Southeast Asia (reedited in 1991 as The Politics of Heroin: CIA Complicity in the Global Drug Trade), the Cold War clearly helped the illicit opium-heroin economies thrive in Asia. This trend emerged first in Laos and in Burma, then in Afghanistan in what came to be known as the Golden Crescent. In both Southeast and Southwest Asia, the Central Intelligence Agency’s anti-Communist covert operations and secret wars benefited from the participation of some drug-related combat units or individual actors who, to finance their struggles, were directly involved in drug production and trade. To cite just two, the Hmong in Laos and Gulbuddin Hekmatyar in Afghanistan.

Opium Production in Afghanistan (and Asia)

Today, Afghanistan’s opium production is the direct outcome of Cold War rivalries and conflicts waged by proxies who helped develop a thriving narcotic economy in the country. Afghanistan has been the world’s leading opium-producing country for years now, with Burma and Laos ranking second and third respectively.

However, the spread of drug trafficking in Asia and elsewhere is also clearly linked to the international prohibition of certain drugs of which the two most significant events occurred in 1961, when the United Nations Single Convention on Narcotic Drugs was adopted, and in 1971, when the administration of U.S. President Richard Nixon declared a global “war on drugs.” However, the U.S.-led push for global prohibition had unintended local and regional consequences. In Iran for example, the 1955 prohibition stimulated production in Afghanistan and Pakistan and even in the distant Golden Triangle. Turkish prohibition of opium production in 1972 spurred the Golden Crescent’s production and further linked together Asia’s two main poppy-growing areas.

After the Cold War and the collapse of the Soviet Union, the illicit drug trade continued to fuel Asian conflicts, and Afghanistan and Burma became the world’s two main opium-producing countries. Their national economies have now been affected for decades by an illicit agriculture that, to some extent and in some areas, grew detrimentally to food crops such as wheat and rice, even though most farmers grow the opium poppy as a cash crop to cope with extreme staple crops shortages. Various political and economic factors have favored or still favor the resort to the illicit drug economy in both countries: internal or transnational conflicts, the disintegration of the state, ethnic contentions, religious strife, oppressive regimes, lack of economic development projects, low international prices of food crops and droughts, just to name a few.

Illicit opium production thrives on war economies and poverty. Impacts and consequences of such economies vary according to time and location. Opium production threatens alimentary self-reliance and subjects growers to repression and even harsher life conditions. Trafficking destabilizes producing and neighboring countries by stimulating the corruption of authorities. Trafficking also spreads consumption of opium and especially of heroin, both creating and increasing drug addiction along trafficking routes, as is the case in Central Asia and China. Production, trafficking and consumption also nurture armed violence across international borders and spread scourges such as the HIV-AIDS epidemic that is transmitted by way of intravenous drug use in most of Asia.

Conclusions

Thus, illicit opium production can be assessed to be a national, regional, and global problem. This problem is deeply rooted in local as well as global histories and may only be addressed in various and specific cultural, political and economic contexts. However, any solution to the problem of illicit drug production in Asia, as in the rest of the world, has to be achieved through a global and coordinated approach. If opium suppression is to be achieved, if it is to be sustainable and not counterproductive, it has to be implemented progressively, through use of a long run strategy, as has happened in Pakistan and Thailand.

Afghanistan has suffered two decades of war and economic and political disintegration. Although the role of law enforcement is necessary to rid the country of its drug economy, concrete results will not be achieved without political stability and economic development. It is only when these conditions exist that opium suppression becomes possible in Afghanistan. This is to be achieved through a broad program of alternative livelihood development, mainstreamed into national development strategies.

To the East: The Golden Triangle

Sourced from the Drug Policy Alliance website...

http://www.drugpolicy.org/global/drugpolicyby/asia/seasia/

For centuries South East Asia has grown and sold narcotics. Today, the focal point of illicit drug production and trade is known as the 'Golden Triangle', a relatively lawless territory where Myanmar, Thailand and Laos meet. According to the CIA Factbook, Myanmar is the "world's second largest producer of illicit opium," behind only Afghanistan. Ethnic minorities living in the remote mountainous areas of the country depend on opium poppy cultivation to survive and are generally under the power of insurgent groups. The government is progressively gaining control of the area leading to a drop in opium cultivation however the sustainability of this decline is subject to the government's ability to continue with eradication programs and also develop alternative sources of income for the communities. Already, the production and sale of amphetamine-type stimulants is emerging and could surpass opium trade.

There exists a series of penalties for drug offenders including death under certain circumstances and three year jail terms for unregistered drug users. Myanmar is also engaged in sub-regional cooperation, and has established a working relationship with the respective narcotic control bodies in China and Thailand. Nevertheless, due to internal conflicts and a poor economy Myanmar continues to be a weak link in the supply control chain and faces future drug problems without development resources for opium farmers and HIV/AIDS health programs to eliminate the practice of needle sharing.

Unlike Myanmar, Thailand is no longer a significant producer of opium. Thailand does however face the problem of importation of opium, heroin and amphetamine-type stimulants from neighboring Laos and Myanmar. Thailand's narcotic act classifies drugs into five categories. Those found to be in possession of the most dangerous category of drugs, including no less than 20 grams of heroin, amphetamine, methamphetamine, ecstasy or LSD, will be imprisoned for 1 to 10 years and fined large sums of money. The highest penalty for heroin and methamphetamine traffickers is capital punishment. Recent changes in the narcotics law were made to see that drug addicts and those who support their habits by selling small amounts of drugs were forced to attend military style camp rather than jail. It was hoped that this would shift the focus of narcotic control attempts to drug traffickers and reduce crowding in jails, however, health care and treatment is not freely available to those in need and in February of 2003 the Thai government launched an all-out war on drugs. With hundreds of reported slayings - many in vague circumstances - human rights advocates express concern for the future of the country.

There is an estimated 2 to 3 million drug users in Thailand of which most use methamphetamine, and 60 per cent of incarcerated drug offenders are charged for possessing between one and 100 speed pills. Consequently, the Thai government has established a new national policy focused on stimulant supply reduction strategies. The seriousness of Thailand's HIV/AIDS epidemic has long been denied by the government. There is evidence to suggest that drug trafficking, injecting drug use, and HIV infection are woven closely together and that HIV follows drug trafficking routes. Asia had an estimated 7.2 million HIV cases in 2000 making it the world leader in HIV infection after Africa. Thailand is one of the worst affected countries. The first wave of HIV infection in Thailand occurred amongst injecting drug users, followed by the sex trade and finally the sexually active adult population and their children. This is a pattern observed throughout SE Asian countries and it is predicted that unless immediate action is taken, HIV will spread in a similar fashion through Central Asia.

The Meadows of Afghanistan

By JAMES EMERY, Middle East Times

http://www.metimes.com/International/2008/03/26/afghanistans_opium_dilemma/6923/

Afghanistan's annual opium crop is expected to rival last year's record yield to exceed a staggering 8,000 metric tons, or more than 90 percent of global production, according to a U.N. survey released in February, with the bulk being grown in Taliban strongholds.

Afghanistan grew 8,243 metric tons in 2007, according to the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) in its winter assessment survey. Its forecast for 2008 suggests a flattening out of production, however, following hefty increases in each of the last two years in the war-torn country.

It takes about 10 kilograms of opium to make one kilogram of heroin. However, due to improved quality and higher morphine content, Afghan opium has been converted at a seven to one ratio the last three years. During 2007, 58.4 percent of Afghan opium (8,243 metric tons less 156 tons consumed locally and 105 tons seized) was refined to morphine or heroin, creating 666 tons for export.

Five predominantly Pushtun provinces, Helmand, Kandahar, Uruzgan, Nimroz, and, Farah, which are Taliban strongholds, were responsible for 77.7 percent of Afghanistan's opium cultivation last year. Helmand province alone produced 53 percent of the nation's total crop. Opium cultivation in Helmand is projected to stabilize this year following a 48 percent increase in 2007 and a 162 percent increase in 2006 after the Taliban regained control of the region.

When NATO forces pressed against Taliban insurgents in southern Afghanistan, many fled to the provinces of Nimroz and Farah, where they regrouped. The combined opium cultivation in these two provinces increased 121 percent during 2007 after the Taliban began using them as sanctuaries. Their yields will increase again during 2008, especially in the Khash Rod district of Nimroz province.

"It is quite obvious the Taliban are involved in the drug trade, particularly in the southern provinces," said Dr. Thomas Pietschmann, of the Research and Analysis Section of the UNODC in Vienna, Austria. "We also have information that the farmers were told by the Taliban to grow opium," he added.

The Taliban tax all aspects of the drug trade, from cultivation to processing and distribution. Many of these taxes are paid in drugs, which the Taliban sell. They also earn money by providing protection for opium fields, heroin labs, drug shipments, and narcotics traffickers.

The average wholesale price in 2007 for a kilo (2.2 pounds) of Afghan heroin was $4,500 in Central Asia, $3,206 in Pakistan, and $3,000 in Iran. A kilo of opium was $325, $175, and $600, respectively, in these areas.

Afghan poppy cultivation is a tale of two regions, the narco-terrorists' provinces controlled by the Taliban, and the rest of the country that is significantly more stable and is responding favorably to reconstruction efforts and eradication programs. This trend will continue in 2008. If the five problem provinces are factored out, the other 29 provinces of Afghanistan had a collective 32.4 percent decrease in opium poppy cultivation last year. Twelve provinces are now opium free and eight more are close to eradicating all of their opium.

The anti-opium programs funded by Western governments and supported by reconstruction and humanitarian projects are working and should be continued. The explosion in poppy cultivation is occurring in Taliban dominated provinces. If Western countries seriously want to eradicate this opium, they are going to have to allocate the troops and resources necessary to stabilize and secure these provinces.

Poppy cultivation is much more likely to take place in areas that lack security, as noted by the fact that 85 percent of the villages in southern Afghanistan grow opium, compared to just 1 percent in the central region of the country.

"The vast majority of southern Afghanistan is closed to U.N. operations," said Hakan Demirbuken, who ran the UNODC opium surveys in Afghanistan for several years. "U.N. people are only in the city centers," he added. "They cannot go to the villages. It is very dangerous."

Due to the lack of security, most of the non-governmental organizations shut down their southern operations or they operate only in the major cities. The Taliban have killed staff and aid workers of relief agencies who attempt to travel to rural villages.

"There is obviously a link between instability and opium cultivation," said Jen-Luc Lemahieu, UNODC's chief of Europe, Central Asia, and West Asia. "The linkage between terrorism and opium cultivation is one of agricultural tax as well as protection money in those areas where the Taliban would be a dominating factor."

Poppy cultivation and heroin refineries also strengthen the Taliban's ties with the Afghan population, because so many of them are employed in the drug trade.

NATO troops in Afghanistan, referred to as the International Security Assistance Force, generally avoid any involvement in eradicating opium. Fighting the Taliban is a full-time job and they are concerned that destroying poppy fields will alienate the population, making it more difficult to gain the cooperation necessary to root out insurgents.

The United States wants to implement aerial eradication, which is done by spraying the poppy fields with chemicals. This is one of the most effective methods to destroy opium, but the Afghan government won't allow it for fear that airborne chemicals will drift onto humans and livestock and contaminate the water supply.

It would also antagonize farmers unless alternative sources of income are in place, which is not likely to happen while the Taliban are in control. If opium crops are eradicated, economic desperation will force many farmers to join the primary employer in the region, the Taliban.

Cannabis cultivation is expected to increase again this year, making Afghanistan one of the world's leading suppliers of hashish. Cannabis production in 2007 was 70,000 hectares, a 40 percent increase over the previous year.

Most of the Afghan cannabis is processed into hashish. "In some areas, growing cannabis is as lucrative as growing opium poppy," Pietschmann said, adding, "Cannabis yields about twice the quantity of drugs per hectare as growing opium."

The Taliban and narcotics traffickers are killing Afghanistan. Regardless of what else is accomplished in 29 provinces, the "cancer" in the remaining five will consume and destroy the nation unless it is removed. Security is the single most important factor in eradicating opium. The Taliban must be soundly defeated. In order to achieve this, a significant influx of troops and supplies is needed. Destroying the drug trade will eliminate the Taliban's primary financial source, seriously diminishing their ability to wage a protracted insurgency.


Note: Professor James Emery is an anthropologist and journalist who has reported on regional conflicts and the drug trade for more than 20 years, including five years overseas. He's made several trips into Afghanistan, Myanmar, and other drug-producing and transit countries. Emery lectures on Afghan and Arab culture and the use of applied anthropology in the stabilization of Afghanistan, global terrorism, and the war on drugs.

Friday, April 18, 2008

What Was Dick Cheney Thinking About in 1999?

This transcript can be found at EnergyBulletin.net at http://www.energybulletin.net/559.html.

Full text of Dick Cheney's speech at the
Institute of Petroleum in 1999

"By 2010 we will need on the order of an additional fifty million barrels a day. So where is the oil going to come from?... Oil is unique in that it is so strategic in nature. We are not talking about soap flakes or leisurewear here. Energy is truly fundamental to the world’s economy."

Dick Cheney introduced by the President of the Institute of Petroleum, Mr. Chris Moorhouse:

Thank you.

It's my privilege and honor to welcome all our guests to this, the second Autumn lunch arranged by the Institute of Petroleum. It’s very good to see so many friends, old and new here today. Close to three hundred I’ve been told, so welcome. Guests represent not only a broad cross-section of the UK energy industry, including the major energy companies, contractors, suppliers, consultants, but also representatives from many of the industries associated with the energy business. My own guests include a broad cross-section of the senior representatives of the Institute of Petroleum itself, welcome gentlemen, and I would make special mention of Basil Butler and Larry Farmer who helped to secure today the presence of our principal speaker. The breadth of representation around the room clearly demonstrates a wish to have this kind of opportunity to meet colleagues from the energy industry in such an informal setting, but even more demonstrates a real wish to hear the views of our eminent speaker today. So on behalf of all, I would like to say a very special welcome to Dick Cheney. Dick Cheney is a household name around the world, not only as the Chief Executive Officer of Halliburton, but also from his previous long and distinguished career in US politics. He grew up in Wyoming and was educated at the Universities of Wyoming and Wisconsin and embarked on a career in public service. After appointments to the staff of the Governor of Wisconsin and as a congressional fellow on the staff of a member of the House of Representatives, in 1969 he joined the Nixon administration. He served in a number of positions at the Cost of Living Council, the Office of Economic Opportunity and in The White House, when Gerald Ford took over the presidency in August 1974, Dick Cheney was invited to serve on the transition team and later as Deputy Assistant to the President. In November 1975, he was named Assistant to the President and White House Chief of Staff, a position he held throughout the remainder of the Ford Administration. Returning to his home state of Wyoming in 1977, Dick Cheney was elected to serve as the State’s sole congressman in the US House of Representatives in 1978. He was re-elected five times. At the end of his first term his Republican colleagues elected him to serve as Chairman of the Republican policy committee. He later became Chairman of the Republican Conference and House Minority Whip. As Secretary of Defense from March 1989 to January 1993, Dick Cheney directed two of the largest military campaigns in recent history, Operation Just Cause in Panama and Operation Desert Storm in the Middle East. He was also responsible for shaping the future of the US military in an age of profound and rapid change as the Cold War ended. For his leadership in the Gulf War, Dick Cheney was awarded the Presidential Medal of Freedom by President George Bush on 3rd July 1991. After leaving the Defense Department in 1993, Dick Cheney served as a Senior Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and lectured widely around the country. He currently serves on the Board of Directors at Proctor and Gamble, Union Pacific and EDS. He is a member of the Board of Trustees of Southern Methodist University and the American Enterprise Institute. He also serves on the Board of Directors and the Public Policy Committee of the American Petroleum Institute. Not surprisingly, with such a wide-ranging career in politics and now at Halliburton, Dick Cheney has a deep interest in the geo-politics of the energy industry, so we are privileged today to have his unique insight into the energy industry in the new century. Ladies and gentlemen, I ask you to join me in welcoming Dick Cheney.

Applause.

Dick Cheney: Thank you very much for that welcome and that introduction. I am delighted to be back in London today and have an opportunity to spend some time with all of you. To hear that resume reciting all of my political background and experience, of course oftentimes people say that work in the oil industry isn't really an upper crust kind of organization and I say, Yeah, but I used to be a Congressman and it’s clearly a step up for me to go from the political world to the world of the oil and gas industry. I’m often asked why I left politics and went to Halliburton and I explain that I reached the point where I was mean-spirited, short-tempered and intolerant of those who disagreed with me and they said "Hell, you’d make a great CEO," so I went to Texas and joined the private sector.

But I am delighted to be here and I want to try to avoid, I understand last year when Sheikh Yamani spoke that he was rather pessimistic about the outlook for oil prices and the ability of OPEC to arrive at a price level and maintain it over time and I’m not sure that it’s fair to come back a year later and second-guess and I hope a year from now people won’t do that to me in terms of the forecasts I’m going to make, but I do want to talk about the outlook, certainly from the perspective of Halliburton, how we look at what may occur here in the future and let me say at the outset that I am unreasonably optimistic about our industry.

From the standpoint of the oil industry obviously and I’ll talk a little later on about gas, but obviously for over a hundred years we as an industry have had to deal with the pesky problem that once you find oil and pump it out of the ground you’ve got to turn around and find more or go out of business. Producing oil is obviously a self-depleting activity. Every year you’ve got to find and develop reserves equal to your output just to stand still, just to stay even. This is true for companies as well in the broader economic sense as it is for the world. A new merged company like Exxon-Mobil will have to secure over a billion and a half barrels of new oil equivalent reserves every year just to replace existing production. It’s like making one hundred percent interest discovery in another major field of some five hundred million barrels equivalent every four months or finding two Hibernias a year.

For the world as a whole, oil companies are expected to keep finding and developing enough oil to offset our seventy one million plus barrel a day of oil depletion, but also to meet new demand. By some estimates there will be an average of two per cent annual growth in global oil demand over the years ahead along with conservatively a three per cent natural decline in production from existing reserves. That means by 2010 we will need on the order of an additional fifty million barrels a day. So where is the oil going to come from?

Governments and the national oil companies are obviously controlling about ninety percent of the assets. Oil remains fundamentally a government business. While many regions of the world offer great oil opportunities, the Middle East with two thirds of the world’s oil and the lowest cost, is still where the prize ultimately lies, even though companies are anxious for greater access there, progress continues to be slow. It is true that technology, privatization and the opening up of a number of countries have created many new opportunities in areas around the world for various oil companies, but looking back to the early 1990s, expectations were that significant amounts of the world’s new resources would come from such areas as the former Soviet Union and from China. Of course that didn’t turn out quite as expected. Instead it turned out to be deep water successes that yielded the bonanza of the 1990s.

A fundamental challenge for companies is to do more than replace reserves and production. The trick obviously is also to replace earnings. For most companies, the majority of their profits come from core areas. That is areas where they have significant investments, economies of scale and large license areas locked up. But many of these core areas are now mature and it can be difficult to replace the earnings from the high-margin barrels there. Some of the oil being developed in new areas is obviously very high cost and low margin.

Companies that are finding it difficult to create new core areas through exploration are turning to production deals where they can develop reserves that are already known, but where the country doesn’t have the capital or the technology to exploit them. In production deals there is less exploration risk, but dealing with above ground political risk and commercial and environmental risk are increasing challenges. These include civil strife, transportation routes, labor issues, fiscal terms, sometimes even US-imposed economic sanctions. Many companies are more comfortable dealing with the below ground risk like drilling and reservoir performance than they are with the above ground political risks. The other major element that it is changing is the nature of competition.

One of the biggest questions is what the competitive field will look like in the new industry after this current wave of consolidation in the oil business. Clearly the main driver behind the biggest mergers are the cost savings that are anticipated as a result of economies of scale.

Concentration and critical mass are clearly keys to success. There are also cases where difficulty in sustaining and growing the companies has led management to offer the firm to a bigger player. In the worldwide competition for capital, there are imperatives for size and scale. Larger companies tend to have the highest credit ratings and therefore the lowest borrowing costs, but they also tend to have higher multiples in the stock market. The share price premium becomes a valuable currency for takeovers. They also have stronger financial staying power to undertake the larger projects and to ride out the lean periods. The result of all this consolidation is that now four out of the five largest oil and gas companies by market value are European.


For oil companies, I do not believe that the "bigger-is-better" model is the only viable one. While Halliburton has certainly grown bigger through its merger with Dresser and other key acquisitions, this made sense in part because it gave our company both a broader array of services and also greater depth in products and services.

For oil companies, I see four basic types of firms that I think will survive and prosper in the new environment. First, we will obviously have the super majors, but they have to be careful to avoid the drag-down of facts and the distractions of physically merging, plus the danger of becoming lumbering giants. I think there is a good chance they will avoid becoming bloated bureaucracies because they are very focused on delivering cost-saving synergies for their shareholders.

The second type of survivor will be those companies that have dominance in a region or a market. These integrated companies may not be in the top five globally, but they will be number one or number two in their respective markets. This gives them the critical mass and concentration to compete and win on their turf. Repsol YPF is an example of this type of company; number one in Iberia and the southern corner of Latin America and very profitable.

A third model for competing in the new century is that of what I would call the super independents. These are firms that focus on one line of business but have sufficient scale to have several core areas of material size where they can go head to head with anyone. These combine the advantages of a super major with the agility of an independent. A common element in these three classes of firms will be critical mass and concentration.

A fourth category of survivor in the new competitive world will be what I call niche players who can prosper off the properties that the bigger firms don’t want or because of the very special circumstances they find. Those in the special players will obviously have to compete somewhat below the radar screen of the more dominant companies.

The immense portfolio restructuring that we think likes ahead in the wake of the recent large mergers should create opportunities for competitors to strengthen their positions. New aggregators are likely to emerge which, together with a lot of the brain drain from staff cuts at the majors, could well provide the bigger companies with unexpectedly strong competition in the decade ahead. In many ways, the traditional role of oil companies is changing. Increasingly, we are seeing international oil and gas companies concentrating on managing investment, financial, commercial and political risk or above-ground risk, while service companies are managing technical, completion and operating risk. Meanwhile, national oil companies are focused on managing their country’s national interest and its resources and in the domestic markets. This is part of the new resource rationalism of the 1990s. NOCs may own the resources, but when it is in the national interest to bring in outsiders to help develop them, they do so. Venezuela obviously is a clear example of what I would define as the new resource nationalism. Some NOCs are still looking outside their own borders, but I expect that in the future the emphasis may well be closer to home.

NOCs can focus on becoming regionally dominant players, leveraging off their strong domestic base to move into neighboring countries. This will occur where there are links and synergies with their home business, not just going global for its own sake. I think Petrobras in Brazil may be an example of this in Latin America.

People ask about the future role for OPEC. Certainly the organization represents companies that have a vast amount of oil reserves and it has held together for over a quarter of a century already. OPEC has shown the ability for crisis management every time oil prices have dropped to single digit levels, but the group may ultimately bring about its own undoing if it shoots for too high a level for oil prices. As observers point out, in the long run, this effectively underwrites higher-cost oil exploration and development around the world all at the same time, limiting demand growth below what it might otherwise be. Nonetheless, I believe most of us in the industry have welcomed the restraint in the leadership shown by OPEC in recent months and the improved outlook for the international oil markets. I know I am pleased with the leadership provided by Saudi Arabia, Mexico and Venezuela and, in the long run, I think the world will be best served, and the consumer best served, as well as producers, by stable prices at reasonable levels.

The oil industry will become more integrated in the new century but not necessarily in the traditional sense of link-ups between producers and refiners. The new integration will bring together new capabilities, skills, technology and risk management to create synergies that add value. From my perspective in the oil service industry, I see an integrated role for us in helping to manage certain technical risk, leaving oil companies to retain control but focus on investment decisions, commercial and political risk and financial risk.

Oil companies probably spend the most and make the lowest returns on the actual development and operation of their assets. It is here in the middle of the opportunity chain where service companies can add the most value on the below ground aspects of the operation. Service companies can assist oil companies in making knowledge based value added decisions and implementing them quickly; through this type of integration oil companies can better leverage their skills and resources to maximize value, focusing on their core competencies. For NOCs, working with service companies can make use of the best technical expertise available world-wide, whilst still retaining control and managing the state’s interest in its own natural resources. Service companies are becoming more integrated themselves oftentimes offering integrated solutions.

Let me say a word or two about the impact of technology in the new century. Clearly technology has revolutionized the oil business in the last decade with rapid advances in data interpretation, reservoir management, enhanced oil recovery, directional drilling and deep water operations and the pace of advancement is accelerating. The oil industry is saddled with this image problem as a polluting manufacturing industry when in reality it has become a knowledge based business. The application of technology and information processing is remarkable. Our success as a company and as an industry will depend even more heavily in the future on our ability to develop and deploy new technology.

Let me say a word, if I can, about natural gas because we think there will be tremendous growth occurring in this area in the years ahead. In terms of the North American natural gas market, we are consciously bullish over the next five years and beyond. The demand side has plenty of upside and gas is likely to grab a greater share of US energy consumption in the decade ahead. Virtually all new US power plants are likely to be gas fired and residential penetration is growing fast as well. On the supply side, onshore gas outputs should be weaker and this means that the demand gap will need to be met by perhaps double-digit growth rates and Canadian imports and various significant increases in production out of the Gulf of Mexico. The industry will need to get busy bringing on new production facilities and pipelines systems to meet these needs. Deep water gas, obviously, will have a very important role to play.

There are a number of factors which we believe will drive the growing role for gas on a global basis. The environment, obviously, will be a key driver in the natural gas business in the new century as there is increasing opposition to so called ‘dirty fuels’ like coal and high sulfur fuel oil. Gas is the preferred fuel for power generation. There are continuing technological innovations in gas for power generation, combined psycho plants, greatly increased output efficiency. Gas to liquids is in the threshold of commercial success. There is growing demand in emerging markets like China, India and Brazil. For international oil and gas companies, gas is increasingly a key element of the E and P portfolios--oil becomes more difficult to replace while gas reserves and production will grow. Another reason natural gas will have a huge role in the next century is that the world’s gas resources are obviously vast.

The Middle East and Africa have over one hundred year’s supply of gas reserves at current low usage levels and the former Soviet Union and Latin America have gas reserve to production ratios which should last over seventy years. Even estimates of proved gas reserves understate the volumes involved, since there is plenty of gas still to be found and many existing discoveries have not been booked, usually due to the difficulty of getting gas to market. As companies find more gas, they need to find ways to monitize the remote fields, developing stranded gas often entails new risk involved in building a new market to use the gas. The three main options for moving this gas to market are pipelines, liquefied natural gas and now gas to liquids.

The world will get more and more connected with gas pipelines in the new century as high strength steel and automated equipment allow pipelines to become economical over long distances. In LNG new markets will fundamentally alter the nature of the business. The days of the twenty year take or pay contracts and top drawer buyer credit ratings like Tokyo Electric are over. New buyers will be local power generators in places like India and Turkey. Credit worthiness of new buyers, contracts lengths and base floor prices will be under pressure, introducing new risk. New structures will be needed to share the risk in building the new markets amongst all the participants: producers, consumers, governments and project managers. The long waiting list of green field and LNG expansion projects may signal market limitations for LNG, problems for putting together new projects are due in part to economic slow down in Asia. LNG producers are facing greater competition and lower returns and they may need to look at investing down the gas chain and re-gasification and power as well.

Long term, there are innovations on the way such as power generation synergies with re-gasification, cost reductions and smaller scale projects that could permit floating LNG terminals. An alternative to LNG as a means of monitizing gas reserves is gas to liquids, or GTL which serves a completely different market. This is a well established process for turning low value gas into high value, ultra clean, refined products that are easily transportable meeting the coming demand for green fuels. With a huge world market for refined products, gas to liquids is much more flexible than pipeline or LNG projects which require rigid contracts and off-take commitments. GTL products can be exported inexpensively on product tankers and distributed through existing infrastructures. The appeal of gas to liquids is that there is no exploration risk as with oil, no market risk as there is when trying to open up new areas to gas.

The remaining hurdle has been the economics, but while the conventional wisdom is that gas to liquids viability is still a way off, there are commercial projects on the way right now that have attractive rates of return with the right tax incentives and when viewed as part of a larger strategy. For example, Chevron and Sasol’s plant, Escravos GTL plant in Nigeria is the enabler that permits things such as more gas processing with associated liquids productions, lubes and an ethylene plant. The project, together with Shell’s rebuilding of the MDS plant in Bintulu Malaysia, and projects in Cutter and elsewhere show that GTL’s time is finally arriving. The viability of gas to liquids will be further enhanced through incremental improvements and radical technology breakthroughs in areas such as process, catalyst and reactor technology leading to lower costs, increased efficiency and greater scale and this could herald a revolutionary new era for the international gas industry. Companies are looking at all the sectors: gas transmission, gas distribution, gas trading, power generation, electric utilities, even electricity trading. Some think the opportunities are in owning the infrastructure, while others see the preferred role in the merchant banking function in the energy business, especially trading and providing financial instruments. Still, others think the key is in having the customers and cross selling services. In some instances, gas and electric utilities facing the loss of monopoly positions want to diversify into higher growth, unregulated businesses like oil and gas.

For the other side, oil and gas companies may seek the earnings stability of an utility business that can broaden or integrate their business. These new businesses could cushion the earnings volatility of the petroleum side of the business, for example one of the companies whose earnings held up the best in 1998 during the oil price downturn was Repsol due to its stable income from Gas Natural. In any event, gas and power will be of growing importance in the portfolios of many energy companies with new forms of integration and this has the potential to expose companies to new and unfamiliar risk.

Firms have a lot to learn about electricity price risk and spark spreads. In addition to new risk there will be new competition. Major players may include names likes CMS, AES, Duke Energy, Reliant, Dominion Resources etc. In the minds of many, the energy business is becoming a commodity business whether it’s oil or gas or kilowatts. I think that in many ways it is also a service industry and in any event, on the product side, one has to concede that these are nonetheless unique commodities.

Oil is unique in that it is so strategic in nature. We are not talking about soap flakes or leisurewear here. Energy is truly fundamental to the world’s economy. The Gulf War was a reflection of that reality. The degree of government involvement also makes oil a unique commodity. This is true in both the overwhelming control of oil resources by national oil companies and governments as well as in the consuming nations where oil products are heavily taxed and regulated.

Essentially, the petroleum industry deals with extreme risk and with billions of dollars on the line. Oil is produced in distant lands as a result of huge risk and enormous capital outlays, it is transported over vast distances, refined in expensive refineries with very heavy outlays required to protect the environment and to comply with strict and expensive regulations, distributed through a wide network of pipelines, trucks and wholesale outlets and sold at stations in prime locations and taxed heavily.

It is the basic, fundamental building block of the world’s economy. It is unlike any other commodity.

The oil and gas industry provides essential goods at the lowest possible cost with regular reliability while still ensuring a cleaner environment and the industry provides security of supply even though at the same time we are required to manage huge political risk.

What we do isn’t always appreciated by the public and this is part of our industry’s image problem that we need to work on in the next century.

Frankly the focus in today’s economy on globalization and emerging markets is old news to the oil industry. Ours are global companies investing outside the industrialized companies at the turn of the last century. People need to realize that the energy industry often represents the largest foreign investment in many parts of the world and its interest, insights and experience need to be considered.

Oil is the only large industry whose leverage has not been all that effective in the political arena. Textiles, electronics, agriculture all seem oftentimes to be more influential. Our constituency is not only oilmen from Louisiana and Texas, but software writers in Massachusetts and specially steel producers in Pennsylvania. I am struck that this industry is so strong technically and financially yet not as politically successful or influential as are often smaller industries. We need to earn credibility to have our views heard.

Another concern is the disruptive volatility of the industry. In the new century the oil business needs to learn how to break out of the boom and bust cycles we have experienced over the last century. Perhaps it is part of being a commodity business, but it wreaks havoc with planning processes and can drive smaller companies out of business and, needless to say, creates problems for consumers as well.

One hope might be that the new super majors would use their financial staying power to keep capital spending steady throughout the cycle or even to invest counter-cyclically. This would help smooth out the bumps and of course the financial community could do its part by taking a longer view of financial performance and not pressuring sound companies to cut back during periods of weakness, however unlikely. Technology can help smooth out the cycles by lowering costs. A key challenge for companies in the commodity business is growth and there are basically only two avenues to grow earnings: one is through increasing volume and the other is through improved unit efficiencies. These two options have been driving company strategies.

On the volume side we can see the aggressive production targets that some companies have announced of late. On the unit efficiency side we have the cost cutting targets most firms announced for 1999 and beyond, as well as the mergers designed to generate savings through synergies, economies of scale and reduction in overheads. The view is that in the commodity business the lowest cost producer will be the winner.

In the last century and up to World War Two, coal was king and looks to have a lock as the primary source of energy. It was dethroned by oil, mostly due to transportation fuels, but also because oil was less polluting and easier to handle. Coal is still with us today, but oil is clearly dominant. In the new century, will the oil age give way to another source of energy or to new technologies? Some predict natural gas will erode oil’s performance, others say that technology, fuel cells, telecommuting on the Internet or some other breakthrough will lessen our dependence on hydrocarbons.

Well, the end of the oil era is not here yet, but changes are afoot and the industry must be ready to adapt to the new century and to the transformations that lie ahead. It will mean showing more speed and agility. As I have outlined today, there are new areas to co-operate in, new risk, new competition, new roles, new integration and a new convergence with power. This will be a challenging environment as we cross the threshold into the new millennium.

You don’t hear our times referred to as the Space Age anymore, instead it’s the Information Age. You will notice they call it the Information Age, not the Knowledge Age. Well, I would conclude today by saying that this industry must be at the forefront of moving into the Knowledge Age. Successful competitors will be those that best manage knowledge. This means technology, expertise, best practices, country, market and competitor intelligence and opportunity assessment. These will be the hallmarks of the energy industry in the new century. I for one am proud to be a part of the industry and I am optimistic about our future in the coming century.

Thank you.

Applause.

Chris Moorhouse:
Ladies and Gentlemen I would just like to conclude today by giving a vote of thanks to Dick Cheney for coming to speak to us today. I think it’s been a marvelously inspiring speech. I picked up a couple of things: what we do isn’t always appreciated by the public - I definitely feel that from time to time - and that we are the only large industry which has not been politically influential. Finally, as far as the Institute of Petroleum is concerned, I picked up on the remark that the industry must be ready to change and I would add to that its institutions too. So thank you very much and thanks once again to Dick Cheney.

Applause.